{"id":6233,"date":"2026-05-06T10:09:04","date_gmt":"2026-05-06T10:09:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/agrosynapsis.com\/?p=6233"},"modified":"2026-05-06T10:09:08","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T10:09:08","slug":"how-many-individuals-should-i-screen-to-be-95-confident-of-recovering-the-favorable-genotype-at-a-certain-number-of-loci","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/agrosynapsis.com\/es\/how-many-individuals-should-i-screen-to-be-95-confident-of-recovering-the-favorable-genotype-at-a-certain-number-of-loci\/","title":{"rendered":"How many individuals should I screen to be 95% confident of recovering the favorable genotype at a certain number of loci?"},"content":{"rendered":"

When planning a cross for marker-assisted selection, this question is often overlooked.Yet a simple calculation can help breeders determine whether their genotyping resources and nursery capacity are sufficient to screen enough plants to recover the desired genotype.

Here is how it works:
\ud83c\udfaf Step 1: Define the genetic target
Before calculating probabilities, we must clear our genetic context because genotype frequencies depend on:
\u2022 the crossing scheme (selfing vs. backcrossing)
\u2022 the generation where screening is performed
\u2022 the number of loci involved
\u2022 the loci being or no independent

For example, suppose:
\u2022 Two inbred parents are crossed
\u2022 The F\u2081 is selfed to produce an F\u2082 population
\u2022 We want plants carrying favorable alleles at 3 independent loci
If we require homozygous favorable genotypes, segregation in F\u2082 is:
AA : Aa : aa = 1 : 2 : 1
The probability of obtaining a homozygous favorable genotype (AA) at one locus is:
P = 1\/4
For 3 independent loci:
P(desired genotype) = (1\/4)\u00b3 = 1\/64
So the probability that one F\u2082 plant has the full genotype is:
p = 1\/64 = 0.0156

\ud83c\udfaf Step 2: Calculate how many plants must be screened
To be 95% confident of recovering at least one desired individual, the population size can be estimated using the formula:
N = ln(1 \u2212 0.95) \/ ln(1 \u2212 p)
With p = 1\/64:
N \u2248 190
\ud83d\udc49 About 190 F\u2082 plants must be screened to have a 95% probability of recovering one individual homozygous for the favorable allele at the three loci.
\ud83d\udccc Practical note:
In real breeding programs, some data points are usually lost due to sampling errors, DNA extraction issues, or PCR failures.
For this reason, it is advisable to add about 10% more plants to the calculated number to compensate for potential genotyping losses.

\ud83d\udca1 A practical shortcut: selecting carriers
In many breeding programs, it is not necessary to select fully homozygous individuals in the F\u2082 generation.
If heterozygous plants carrying the favorable allele are also accepted, these genotypes occur more frequently than homozygous ones. As a result, the probability of recovering the desired allele combination increases and the number of plants that must be screened can be substantially reduced.

\ud83d\ude80 Before starting a marker-assisted selection strategy, ask:
\u2022 How many loci am I pyramiding?
\u2022 Do I need homozygous individuals or just allele carriers (heterozygotes)?
\u2022 What is the probability of recovering the genotype?
\u2022 Does my nursery and genotyping capacity match this probability?


\ud83d\udc49 If you\u2019d like to be informed about the upcoming workshops organized by AgroSynapsis, and receive early access and discounts, \ud835\uddf3\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddf9 \ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude02\ud835\ude01 \ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddff \ud835\ude00\ud835\uddf5\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddff\ud835\ude01 \ud835\ude01\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfb\ud835\uddf4 \ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfb\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf2\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddf2\ud835\ude00\ud835\ude01 \ud835\uddf3\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddff\ud835\uddfa here:

https:\/\/lnkd.in\/g3tApqPz<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Discover how to calculate the number of plants needed to recover target genotypes in marker-assisted selection, and align your breeding strategy with available resources.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":6213,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[68],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6233","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tips"],"yoast_head":"\nHow many individuals should I screen to be 95% confident of recovering the favorable genotype at a certain number of loci? - AgroSynapsis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/agrosynapsis.com\/es\/how-many-individuals-should-i-screen-to-be-95-confident-of-recovering-the-favorable-genotype-at-a-certain-number-of-loci\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How many individuals should I screen to be 95% confident of recovering the favorable genotype at a certain number of loci? 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